Real Economic Growth Analyzed

Excellent read from Yale economist and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis consultant Timothy Kehoe. He expresses that economic growth is driven by productivity growth as opposed to prevailing view of capital accumulation as driver.

This is shown with his use, as the beginning stage and presented in excerpt below, of the Malthusian Trap. Fascinating to me and fundamentally important is how this can be applied to global economic growth beyond his analysis.

From 1999 to 2013 (set in 2013 dollars) the World GDP – per capita (PPP) rose from $6800 to $13,100.

How do we move forward with this information?

  1. wait and see: continued development and economic growth
  2. search for post Kehoe analysis: next level (Kehoe 4?) and new cycle of leader-style
  3. present consideration: spread of investment into a global economy

The median annual household income worldwide is $9,733, and the median per-capita household income is $2,920″ by Glenn Phelps and Steve Crabtree via Gallup.

Article excerpt:

Stages of economic growth

We classify the countries in our sample into four stages of economic growth. (For details on country data and classification, see the appendix.)

0. Malthusian trap
1. Taking off into growth
2. Catching up to the economic leader
3. Joining the economic leader

The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 1

by Timothy J. Kehoe

The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2

Hard learning: The American Income Mean vs Median

Matt Phillips reporter for Quartz, and previously the Wall Street Journal, offers assistance as people try to figure out the difference between mean and median income. From his perspective it appears Americans may be learning by proverbial “osmosis” rather than studiously as incomes diverge. With analysis from the Federal Reserve’s triennial survey of consumer finances Mr. Phillips shows how exactly the economy has improved.

Excerpt from article:

“despite the fact that mean income rose 4% to $87,200 per family, median income actually fell by 5% to $46,700 between 2010 and 2013.”

To be clear this means that the number of people making below median income has increased so significantly that the median actually fell while the majority of money itself rose for those fewer above median income.

Painfully, American families are learning the difference between median and mean

by Matt Phillips