[Note on Image: picture the reverse as well but combined – fiscal cliff?]
A view forward to 2020 there will be an increase in entitlement spending as noted in the article per one of the President’s within the Federal Reserve district banks. With Baby Boomers moving to peak in claiming Social Security and Medicare benefits coupled with rising interest rates, my previous prediction of a rough year approximately 2019 doesn’t seem so radical.
IMO 2019/2020 also aligns with a roughly typical 10-year cycle of consumer tentativeness, increased investing, and then fear brought about by roughly steady years of growth (albeit this time slow, low, and difficult to accept as rebounded). I like to think of this as a revolving Jungian Cycle limited to Summer and Autumn.
I know there is plenty of debate on these issues but the economy has recovered to the point we’ve increased interest rates and with the entitlement wall approaching fast, beware the scare.
Affordable Care is a beast and not quite perfect but in this humble opinion it is the one thing going to keep the Baby Boomers from a scary end and I for one am willing to swallow the dark, expensive pill as a Millennial, will you Gen X?
The U.S. Debt: Why It Will Continue To Rise
by Forbes Contributor Mike Patton
The National Priorities Project was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 and currently focuses on taxes, the national debt, and government transparency.
First, information from a second source with links.
“Government Budget in the United States averaged -3.02 percent of GDP from 1948 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent of GDP in 1948 and a record low of -12.10 percent of GDP in 2009.” – TRADING ECONOMICS quote from their page United States Government Budget
Now back to the NPP; this article discusses the basics to understanding the federal debt.
A few overview points are as follows though the article is an excellent resource for much more information and explanation.
- Tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 contributing impact to deficits
- Total federal debt listed in article as of 4 June 2015: $18.153T
- Foreign investment in U.S. Treasury Bonds
- China $1.3T
- Japan $1.2T
- Brazil $262B
- oil exporting nations $297B
- Caribbean banking centers $293B
The entire article and links to several others for research or study can be found through the link below.
Borrowing and the Federal Debt: Federal Budget 101
By National Priorities Project (NPP)
WordPress contributor Bob Reuschlein in his article: Peace Economics, Only Way provides a well described complex analysis of military spending for war time and peace time. He finds Juglar cycles and links to a power point slide “Psychology of Empire.”
For a dissertation abstract of his work, link to ISBN: 9781109483468.