Real Economic Growth Analyzed

Excellent read from Yale economist and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis consultant Timothy Kehoe. He expresses that economic growth is driven by productivity growth as opposed to prevailing view of capital accumulation as driver.

This is shown with his use, as the beginning stage and presented in excerpt below, of the Malthusian Trap. Fascinating to me and fundamentally important is how this can be applied to global economic growth beyond his analysis.

From 1999 to 2013 (set in 2013 dollars) the World GDP – per capita (PPP) rose from $6800 to $13,100.

How do we move forward with this information?

  1. wait and see: continued development and economic growth
  2. search for post Kehoe analysis: next level (Kehoe 4?) and new cycle of leader-style
  3. present consideration: spread of investment into a global economy

The median annual household income worldwide is $9,733, and the median per-capita household income is $2,920″ by Glenn Phelps and Steve Crabtree via Gallup.

Article excerpt:

Stages of economic growth

We classify the countries in our sample into four stages of economic growth. (For details on country data and classification, see the appendix.)

0. Malthusian trap
1. Taking off into growth
2. Catching up to the economic leader
3. Joining the economic leader

The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 1

by Timothy J. Kehoe

The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2

Borrowing and the Federal Debt

The National Priorities Project was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 and currently focuses on taxes, the national debt, and government transparency.

First, information from a second source with links.

“Government Budget in the United States averaged -3.02 percent of GDP from 1948 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent of GDP in 1948 and a record low of -12.10 percent of GDP in 2009.” – TRADING ECONOMICS quote from their page United States Government Budget 

Now back to the NPP; this article discusses the basics to understanding the federal debt.

A few overview points are as follows though the article is an excellent resource for much more information and explanation.

  • Tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 contributing impact to deficits
  • Total federal debt listed in article as of 4 June 2015: $18.153T
  • Foreign investment in U.S. Treasury Bonds
    • China $1.3T
    • Japan $1.2T
    • Brazil $262B
    • oil exporting nations $297B
    • Caribbean banking centers $293B

The entire article and links to several others for research or study can be found through the link below.

Borrowing and the Federal Debt: Federal Budget 101

By National Priorities Project (NPP)

Globalization (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Thorough encyclopedic examination of the term globalization by the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

Economics of Subjective Welfare

New research teaches us more about interpretive difficulties of subjective welfare as it relates to analysis of data.

The author links to various articles including one by Deaton during a review of the research. Discussion includes fixed personal characteristics, set point theory, lottery winner analysis, and locus of control.

Why our personalities pose a challenge for economists

by Jed Friedman – senior economist in the Development Research Group (Poverty and Inequality Team) at the World Bank

Ecologically Sustainable Growth

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) released findings from two-year project: the Australian National Outlook report. The report “integrated a model of the economy with no less than eight models of different aspects of the global and domestic natural environment in which the economy exists,” as reported by in his article Economic growth doesn’t need to cost the world. The article covers findings on the 18 scenarios with variables, that include global population and economic development in Australia, and impact on ecological concerns, such as greenhouse gas emissions and water stress.

Continue reading Ecologically Sustainable Growth

Economic Growth and Planetary Boundaries

Analysis of the nine boundaries critical to human existence and how macroeconomics recognition is integral. Author discusses ‘ruthless’ growth, ‘futureless’ growth, and transition steps pre-2050.

Time to Stop Worshipping Economic Growth

by Brent Blackwelder PhD and President Emeritus of Friends of the Earth U.S.

Ben Bernanke and Memoir: The Courage to Act

A quick article about Ben Bernanke and his memoir, The Courage to Act, featuring excerpts about his frustration with the Republican Party in his dealings as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Ben Bernanke Is Fed Up

by Chad Stone via US News and World Report

Chief Economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

A Blogger’s “Lazy” approach to (not quite) defending Economics as a Science

A concise critique on Joris Luyendijk, previous writer for the Guardian, and his article Don’t let the Nobel prize fool you. Economics is not a science.  The critique focuses on particular sections of the Luyendijk’s article and challenges him to bring more than just editorial perspective.  What I enjoy about this article is that it appears Smith successfully brings more in the challenge and with seemingly less effort than Luyendijk.  The article is from his blog Noahpinion.

Lazy econ critiques

by Noah Smith

Angus Deaton, Nobel prize winner for economic sciences

Short article on Nobel prize winners 2015 with initial focus on Angus Deaton, economic sciences, and “his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.”

Britain’s Angus Deaton wins Nobel economics prize

by Staff at The Canadian Press

History of Economics – a course by Schumpeter

This article lists reading material and enrollment for courses during this period: 1939-1949.  This is an excellent resource for nostalgia and a comprehensive list of economic reads.

Economics in the Rear-View Mirror

by Irwin Collier