The U.S. Debt, unlike the South – it will rise again

[Note on Image: picture the reverse as well but combined – fiscal cliff?]

A view forward to 2020 there will be an increase in entitlement spending as noted in the article per one of the President’s within the Federal Reserve district banks. With Baby Boomers moving to peak in claiming Social Security and Medicare benefits coupled with rising interest rates, my previous prediction of a rough year approximately 2019 doesn’t seem so radical.

IMO 2019/2020 also aligns with a roughly typical 10-year cycle of consumer tentativeness, increased investing, and then fear brought about by roughly steady years of growth (albeit this time slow, low, and difficult to accept as rebounded). I like to think of this as a revolving Jungian Cycle limited to Summer and Autumn.

I know there is plenty of debate on these issues but the economy has recovered to the point we’ve increased interest rates and with the entitlement wall approaching fast, beware the scare.

Affordable Care is a beast and not quite perfect but in this humble opinion it is the one thing going to keep the Baby Boomers from a scary end and I for one am willing to swallow the dark, expensive pill as a Millennial, will you Gen X?

The U.S. Debt: Why It Will Continue To Rise

by Forbes Contributor Mike Patton

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Finland draws EU attention

EU keeps close eye on Finland as they streamline government in experiment on negative income tax of 800 euro per person.

Article cites Milton Friedman, author of Capitalism and Freedom, as advocate of negative income tax.

The Finnish Model

By renowned Guy Sorman

slower gdp growth IS NOT A BAD THING

An excellent view on why GDP growth is not a good measure for economic health likely cannot be better worded than is in an article by the Harvard Business School: “Other activities included in GDP, such as health care costs, do not reflect the fact that spending more on health care is, in John Caddell’s opinion, “in general not good for the country.”

spending more on health care is in general not good for the country

More to my person opinion, measuring GDP growth as a measure of the economy disappoints me because this suggests to me that we are in a consumerist economy.  I have no issue with people desiring whatever goods are desired however attributing these to the health of the economy appears problematic; not all goods are necessary for life and including the unnecessary should not indicate a general higher national economic well-being.
Authors from Boston University provided The Pardee Papers, specifically issue number four from 2009, as an early look into the need to change how we measure GDP. From the abstract: “We critique the inappropriate use of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of national well-being, something for which it was never designed.” The authors help readers to understand that measuring GDP as a measure of well-being is problematic by offering the analogy of a building using electricity and that the more electricity used does not necessarily indicate higher quality of life. I find this to be a weak analogy – however it does begin the process of recognizing certain things – as suggested before higher health care spending does not imply higher quality of life. Link to PDF follows.
One alternative measure is examined by Senior Fellow at New America: Georgia Levenson Keohane in an article posted by Time in which a Social Progress Index measures the extent to which countries provide for the social and environmental needs of their citizens. The SPI was developed by the Social Progress Imperative and is based on the writings of Amartya Sen, Douglass North, and Joseph Stiglitz. From this list I’ve read three of Amartya Sen’s books and have concern about inflationary aspects of his lending practices if applied globally, however I take no issue with his belief in assisting the extremely impoverished. It appears the SPI has been in use since the beta version launched in 2013.
Several other alternative measures are reintroduced in a January 2016 article by CBSnews which provides a re-listing and link to a 2008 article from The New York Times.

 

Borrowing and the Federal Debt

The National Priorities Project was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 and currently focuses on taxes, the national debt, and government transparency.

First, information from a second source with links.

“Government Budget in the United States averaged -3.02 percent of GDP from 1948 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent of GDP in 1948 and a record low of -12.10 percent of GDP in 2009.” – TRADING ECONOMICS quote from their page United States Government Budget 

Now back to the NPP; this article discusses the basics to understanding the federal debt.

A few overview points are as follows though the article is an excellent resource for much more information and explanation.

  • Tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 contributing impact to deficits
  • Total federal debt listed in article as of 4 June 2015: $18.153T
  • Foreign investment in U.S. Treasury Bonds
    • China $1.3T
    • Japan $1.2T
    • Brazil $262B
    • oil exporting nations $297B
    • Caribbean banking centers $293B

The entire article and links to several others for research or study can be found through the link below.

Borrowing and the Federal Debt: Federal Budget 101

By National Priorities Project (NPP)

Quantitative and Qualitative monetary easing an Overview

Introduction of “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate”

Speech at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting in Tokyo
Haruhiko Kuroda
Governor of the Bank of Japan
Document provided by Fiscal Post (article link)

Continue reading Quantitative and Qualitative monetary easing an Overview

Political Communication – Why we struggle to communicate

Milton Friedman is a renowned economist. Many people reference his views on Capitalism, Freedom, Free-Trade, and smaller Government as the entire picture in defense of points of view. Line of sight is incredible and advantageous; in fact simply taking a tiny segment of a conversation or debate to create an impenetrable defense works many times over as most people are too busy with their personal lives and struggles to dig deeper and look at the whole Friedman picture. Were one to do so they would see that Friedman supports Government spending on Public Education, both Secondary and Post-Secondary, to create Civic Leaders and a more educated Government – he goes so far as to indicate this is in part what public education was created to do. Imagine education through a college degree to become a politician (local, state, federal) and that is the baseline, minimum wage to the politician. If you desire to have any other degree it becomes an out of pocket expense. Everyone has an education to have government employment and if you desire private sector work you either use this knowledge to become employed or you pay for education related to your desired employment interest. Now that to me is exceptional – from this point of view, minimum wage work is in politics (why not, we’re the boss – shouldn’t our employees make minimum wage).

If you were to ask people who know me they would suggest my super-power is tangents; at the same time if you were to ask who the superhero tangent man is they would not recognize that person as the same as me (nor would I). But it’s the same as Clark Kent and Superman; a pair of glasses and a uniform can make all the difference. I have enjoyed the experience many times of working at a job and shopping at my work and people suggesting they didn’t recognize me until they were directly in front of me. This is not unnatural nor am I offended, instead I recognize that people have their own lives and own perspectives and categories. “Jerhail, that’s the guy I work with,” and not, “Jerhail is Jesse,” truly it’s only simple when you are looking and as simple as no one actually knows me but me – the same is true for each of you; you are you and no one knows you as you but you.

If you didn’t follow that don’t worry, I’m tangential and not offended. I respect that I won’t understand your perspective either, but sometimes I’m happy to listen and try to understand. When I ask a question it isn’t to be degrading or disrespectful, I am curious and completely respectful as I attempt to know you better. But perhaps the glasses Clark Kent wore are the same for me except my glasses don’t give me a different view of humanity instead they are ‘rose-colored glasses’ meaning that I am optimistic but not that kind of optimistic – the simplistic kind of optimism. I am terrible with curves and three dimensions; instead of visualizing the curve, I work diligently to make an excessive amount of small straight lines but when I step back I can see that it appears to be a curve to my eyes and perhaps even yours. Perhaps we both see the little straight lines I drew but we both see the curve, or perhaps you only see a curve; and even better, if you were to show me the drawing a few years (more likely weeks) from now I would see only a curve and forget all the straight lines or that it was even my drawing.

Tangentially tired? I like to picture the Wright Brothers drawing many, many straight lines to create their first flight above the ‘smooth’ surface of the planet only to fly above it and see a smooth planet. Were I to run along the planet there would be plenty of me twisting and turning following straight paths around difficult terrain but if I weren’t to deviate entirely, from high above in a plane, it might appear I were traveling along a smooth path.

I’ll attempt to get to the point. I believe the struggle to having a successful discussion between people about politics, economics, from left, right, conservative, liberal, progressive, democratic, republican (it doesn’t really matter the perspective or pov, los) there needs to be a baseline understanding. I think the big miss is as simple as everyone’s favorite (sarcastic – though it is actually one of my favorites and many others) Mathematics.

So allow me to show you my perspective on why people struggle to have a conversation via mathematics.

Taking the total amount of money supply (wealthy + middle class): 4 + 4 = 8

This is one perspective and glaringly obvious is we’re missing the lower income: 4 + 4 + 0 = 8

No big deal right? (and please be patient as I know the number isn’t zero).

This is where we get to actually talk about what the argument about equality comes in:

Four and four are two numbers, but zero is also a number; equality would be representing them equally. This means that each counts as one (1 + 1 + 1) not that the two fours should give to the zero (not just yet conversationally anyhow).

So why does this matter? Because of divisibility (and in a minute additionally); eight divided by two is much different than eight divided by three.

Not only do I believe there are differing perspectives about how to add and subtract with regard to people but I think there is a huge gap conversationally about what this means when we look at multiplication and division.

Tired yet, too bad 😛

I really believe that people are so busy working on their own lives and struggles/enjoyments that they forget about the zeros and multiplication and division. Please allow me to express my meaning.

I think when we draw a ‘smooth curve’ people think we’re making it up, we’re being theorists or conspiracy driven.

Not so, it comes down to perspective. 3 x 3 = 9 is not theoretical nor is it a conspiracy, 3 + 3 + 3 = 9 is simply the perspective you might be taking, some of us just using different methodology. Now I’m not saying people don’t know multiplication I’m saying that people forget approaches, or never learned approaches, to political points of view and economics as others have not forgotten or learned. Some people literally need to see that 3 + 3 = 6 first and then that 6 + 3 = 9. This isn’t a problem until two people try to have a discussion.

Cool so far (and bored or like this Jerhail is kind of a jerk – that’s okay, I’m at least trying). Please hang in there, I’m coming more to the point. This multiplicative perspective applies to addition and subtraction more so than previously indicated and here it is.

Money supply: 4 – 3 + 5 = 6, which is awesome, 4 became 6, but wait a minute in order to get there we need to look at some other perspective. 4 – 3 =  1 and wow this is not good. 4 became 1 and this is awfully negative (ha, love jokes). That’s okay, you’re right! 4 did become 1; so what do we need to really look at in discussions because going negative could be negative no matter how much it will become 6. Your point of view is just as relevant as someone who jumps right to 6.

This is why it matters (and how). The big question is how long did it take us to subtract and how long did it take us to add. If within six months we subtract 3 and stay at 1 for ten years, it’s totally relevant that maybe this isn’t good no matter how good it is that it becomes 6 after ten years.

Have I made sense? I don’t know but it seems incredibly important to be able to see each others perspectives conversationally because if we don’t then we don’t get anywhere except into disparate categories; especially if you are the 1 and the 3 which were taken away were from the other three of the original 4.

I said I’d get back to it so I will with regard to the zero. Sometimes people ask how is it possible that 3 + 2 = 4; someone must be embezzling (well maybe) but for now let me look through the other type of rose-colored glasses and suggest we aren’t and in fact that when we look we see that it is actually that third category was missing because we took the other approach: 3 + 2 = 5 (not four) but we didn’t take the next step which is that maybe there is a negative one which we didn’t get to yet. 3 + 2 – 1 = 4.

And this is where it can get messy in conversation. But that negative one might represent government spending on people in the third group who are trying to make it in life beyond get a job, you know from the job tree. Perhaps I’ll climb into my job cannon and get shot out into the job world and just get a job (and yes this is a perspective by some). But what if the just as before it takes longer to add than subtract. Or maybe we have two separate math problems and one is population + population growth. And the other is jobs + job growth. And in the one case the addition takes longer than in the other – this would be an incredible problem. One is growing faster than the other so maybe I could shoot myself out of the job cannon but the job tree is relatively empty and even worse maybe the jobs available only sustain 75% of the ability to live (similar to the car insurance commercial about three-fourths of a vehicle). Yes 75% is better than 0% but that’s kind of a jerk move (which clearly I’m familiar with being a jerk – sub what word you will) when you’re asking a person trying to find four-walls, transportation, work, food, and all the like to cut out 25% for the time being. That’s stressful and here’s me being a jerk: guess what, not everyone is you. Not everyone can get over it or make the tough decisions as quickly. Sometimes the flower blooms late or not at all. And my favorite reply back (especially from ‘Christians’) is “survival of the fittest.”

LAWLS and seriously WTF; “I don’t have time to tell you how wrong you are.” … “Wait, it’s going to bug me if I don’t.”

Do you seriously think people dying on the streets is going to be better than handing out money to aid in their recovery thus creating the negative one.

People will take advantage you say? Well how about this – I put on the rose-colored glasses for embezzling so how about before we get into the argument, you just predict what the math will be if you compare embezzled money to free-riders.

Now, I don’t want to walk outside and see that the homeless population is growing and ‘encroaching’ nor do I wish to see you spend your money on gating your community to keep the ‘rif-raf’ out or “secure your privacy.”

The same as Friedman, you might not understand exactly what racism is. The same as you might not see how class-ism is nearly exactly the same as racism except it’s ‘less-visible.’

Racism, Class-ism, Sexism, most of the –isms; tend to be more problematic than just getting over it. Friedman suggests that a black can grow grain and sell bread and anyone would buy, economics is color blind. Not true, if the wheat farm can’t find a purchaser of wheat because of racism that means the wheat farmer must now become a flour maker (or et al) and are still prone to the same issues of racism. This does cross apply to the –isms and we all know it; the problem is sometimes we need to go slow and explain the three step mathematical process rather than jump ahead because we didn’t receive (or recall) the same education.

Please, all sides, slow down and do a perspective check. Thanks for your time today.

Sincerely the jerk,

Jerhail 😛

TPP and Jobs

Reddit has posted a host of articles currently questioning decreases in jobs due to the Trans Pacific Partnership when the President suggested there would be an increase in income and jobs. Well you silly geese here is why there is a reduction, it precedes the income increases and increase to jobs available as immediately the restructuring sends the lower earning work overseas.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice-President for International Policy

Trans Pacific Partnership and Jobs

Article by John G. Murphy

Millennials and Housing

There have been several articles recently questioning Millennials and their lack of desire to invest in home buying so I did some research.

Utilizing information from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau: Current Population Reports – Consumer Income from 1995, 2010, and 2014, I have gathered information on incomes for 25-34 year old individuals and their representation as a part of homeowners. I have also utilized census.gov/…/uspricemon.pdf to gather information on the Sales Prices of New Homes for each of the same years.

Continue reading Millennials and Housing